Neodymium (Nd)

Neodymium sits at rank #2 this week. The equity-proxy basket (MP + Lynas) is up significantly over the 90-day window. China + Russia control ~71% of NdPr output; the non-aligned supply base is thicker than tungsten's but still narrow: MP Materials (Mountain Pass, US) and Lynas (Mt Weld + Kalgoorlie, AU) are effectively the entire Western roster. What makes this different from other rare earths: neodymium has a hard demand pull — every permanent-magnet motor in every EV, every wind turbine, every high-end HVAC. The substitution options are weak (ferrite magnets cost you ~30% motor efficiency, a non-starter at scale). When China adjusts export licensing — which it has been doing in successive waves — the downstream pain is real and fast. Where the broker opportunity sits: not in the magnet material itself (the majors have locked capacity), but in the adjacent steps — heavy rare earth separation (dysprosium, terbium) which MP is just now building, and in lining up Western OEMs with the limited volumes coming out of Mountain Pass stage-II processing. A lot of buyers still assume 'rare earths' means 'call Lynas' — they are missing the stage-II capacity fight. What to watch: DoD Title III awards on heavy rare earth separation; Lynas Kalgoorlie cracking-and-leaching ramp; MP Materials magnet facility commissioning in Fort Worth. Any slip in any of those three moves the whole ranking. If you're an EV OEM, defense prime, or wind turbine manufacturer without contracted non-China NdPr through 2027 — that gap should be on your risk register, not your watchlist.